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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU)

LU 2.745

-2.8%

Nov 12 3:59 PM EST

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To: matt dillabough who wrote (11055)	11/11/1999 9:26:00 PM
From: Mr.Fun	Read Replies (4) of 21876

I was at the meeting today and at the NT meeting yesterday. NT has an IR problem on their hands - the buzz at LU today was that NT had given guidance for 100%YoY growth in their optical business and that that such growth suggested a overall topline growth close to 30%. This is, of course, not NT's actual guidance which was for 60% growth in optical (a number given only to those who asked after the session was over) and 20-21% growth overall. It has two effects. First, when NT reports next quarter, and delivers 20-21% sales growth and beats by a penny, the stock will get hammered, as the big reason it has a 62x multiple of 2000 earnings is because people think great things are possible. Look for alot of confusion here, which is too bad, because we've made alot of good money on NT. We are going to get out. LU gave a show that was jammed packed with info - in contrast with NT's almost content free presentation. It will take a while for everyone to digest the material, but the upshot will be good. There is still a little December quarter grumbling going on which could dog the stock alittle until Jan, but I still think we'll see 80 soon.

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