Sorry Ron,
I had to rush outside, this lady's puppy got hit by a golf cart. Geez! I think it will be OK.
I left out the most important number on the post. That is 4 and I know I don't have to tell you what that is.
163 x 5 + 4 = 1467 divided by 3 = $489
The 4 is the only Concrete number in the formula the rest are abstract numbers based on TIME, TIME and MOTION, PSYCHOLOGY, SPATIAL ACUITY and LIMITS.
Now which number do you think is the summation of Psychology? You got it, the biggest number ( 1467 ), because that is the biggest thing in play here up to one day after the split. The rest of the terms are applied in weighted average form depending on what Market I am in. It can be the salvage markets, commodity markets and yes even the stock markets, basically any kind of market when one needs to know how far, how fast, how much and how long something might entail. I do not want to get into how I arrive at the other values because like my son has told me many times, Dad, you can't teach that so don't try and besides everyone will think you are nuts.
I developed this technique out of necessity from my days as a Salvor,
Handling or disposing of Salvage for the large property Insurance companies around the world, or as a Restoration Expert. An example: When I had to put in a NOT TO EXCEED bid on The World Trade Center buildings after the bombing in less than 24 hours, I could count on this technique to tell me how many people I would need to work per day, (3,000), how long, (21 days), how big, (210 acres of structure and contents)but mainly and the Most Important, after 21 days WHAT PRICE OR WE GOING TO BE At. In other words, did we make any money. The answer is yes, it turned out to be about a $20 million job. I never got a second chance, it had to be right or we lost our ass. Most people bidding large jobs like that would have at least several days, mind was always Crisis oriented and I did not have that luxury.
On the above mentioned loss, the big number would not have been Psychology, it would have been a time variable but much larger than the 3 you saw in my formula. The psychology number would have been much smaller. That is not to say there was not a Psychology factor at The World Trade Center, there was and it's weighted average was based on bringing supervisors in from all over the country who maybe had not worked or even been in New York before. Also the Psychology of working in one of the most important Financial Centers in the world, but a much smaller factor. Another example that would influence that number three or Time is where you are working. Which job would carry the highest Time factor, a job in Iowa or a Job in Brazil. Please, the job in Brazil because the work ethic in Iowa is so much better.
At any rate, I do not won't to bore you people with it but that gives you a pretty good idea of where I am coming from plus a little feel.
The two factors driving Q is Psychology and Time. Only up to the time of the split and the you have to what - DIVIDE!
Voltaire |
