Re"I find many of the posters here to be doing a disservice to the readers (Can you say Uncle?). Too many rose color glasses."
Quave, of the boards I read, I find Unclewest to be one of better posters to read because he is very clear about the assumptions he makes on market size, market share, royalty rate, margins, etc. We all are then capable of evaluating these assumptions as to how optimistic they might or might not be. At the end of the day, Unclewest has assumed that the Rambus technology will prevail due to the support from Intel and others. Dan3 and various others assume the technology won't prevail due to cost and technical issues. Two different views, either may be correct. Based on good input from both sides we can look at risk/reward ratio for this stock versus others and make our buy/sell decisions.
So, as a long time lurker, let me say that I appreciate the effort of the longs and the shorts in explaining their views. I don't see the need to get upset at each other, but type "A" personalities have that tendency and I'll bet these guys are all type A's.
For my part, due to information gleaned from Unclewest and others I have an average buy price of 72 and I'm holding through all the ups and downs. If the technology becomes mainstream (40% chance in my view), I think we'll see $300-400 in the next couple years. If the technology dies out to a niche product, we'll see $10-20. Now I'll calculate that: .4*$350 + .6*$15 = $149 / share = 65% in two years. I like to see my risked estimates come to a 100% gain in two years, so I wouldn't buy at this point (I did buy in the 60's and 70's), but I'll hold and enjoy the posts from the longs and shorts.
Tom |
