<I think you have hit the nail on the head here. I have asked many>
I take it that you may have seen my response to Tom (#14166)? Using his $3/license #, I wonder if we could project reasonable revenues from licensing over the next 4 years.
Further, what kind of modem sales might we conservatively expect over the next 4 years. Keeping in mind that USRX has the name, the distribution channels, the price and a comprehensive (all bases covered, "v-everything") product solution that it plans to sell this summer. And that other high profile modem OEMs likely will also follow with an ADSL modem. (If market leader USRX isn't worried about AMTX's standard, who else will?)
Perhaps even Motorola will offer one. BTW, how much does MOT pay for AMTX-DMT? And might they not also license and offer a CAP or AWRE-DMT version, if it sells? (Of course they might). It seems to me, in effect, for TI or MOT to license AMTX-DMT doesn't really guarantee any revs unless they SELL that chip.
Amati is not expected to turn a profit until 1999 (according to a six month old Dain Bosworth report I found). So the focus will be on revenue growth, but how long can they continue to burn cash (as someone else recently asked regarding a secondary)?
Necessary questions, for believers and potential converts alike...
Regards-
Steve |
