MDA - Market Direction Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 660.08

-0.8%

Nov 18 4:00 PM EST

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (33330)	11/12/1999 8:15:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) of 99985

GZ, i agree with you about the potential for a multi month rally...the cycles suggest the same. my only concern is the trajectory and the volume of the latest move in the NAZ. on a long-term chart it looks suspiciously like a blow-off to me. i keep a comparison between the '80's Nikkei and the U.S. market of the '90's, since the chart patterns are remarkably similar (last year's break would be represented by the '87 crash on the Nikkei chart). in terms of the S&P it seems we have another year of gains ahead of us. but the extent and slope of the advance of the NAZ has already surpassed the Nikkei by far. essentially we have come farther in one year than the Nikkei managed to go in two years, so we're going at about twice the rate, and most recently the rate of ascent has accelerated even more in relative terms. just something to keep in mind... one possible resolution would of course be if heretofore neglected sectors were to take over and begin to rally and show better relative strength. regards, hb

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