[Wild ass Guess (WAG)]
Heres a data from a post I did around 6 months ago. Take a shot.
Lets say that there are 230 million folks in the US, 40 % of those folks have access to a computer, and of that
40 percent, 20 percent are online users that yeilds (230,000,000 * .40) * .20 = 18,000,00 online users this year.
Now if we assume that the number of users grows at the rate of 30 percent per year (year over year) and that
the number of DSL users grows .05 in 97, 10 percent in 98,99 and 2000, then 20 percent in 2001 and 2002 we
get the following.
Year 97 98 99 2000 2001 2002
Millions Online 24 31 40 53 68 89
Percent DSL Users 5 10 10 20 20 20
Total DSL Users DSL Users 100k 3.1mill 4.04mill 5.25mill 13.66mill 17.76mill
Gross Rev from DSL (Billions) 0.05 0.62 .80 1.05 2.7 3.55
Retail Market price $500.00 $200.00 $200.00 $200.00 $200.00 $200.00
Net Profit (millions) $10. $124. $161. $210 $546.5 $710.
So according to my guess, the DSL revenues (assuming net 20% profits) in 97 may approach 10 million
and then 710 million by the year 2002. These numbers assume a retail price for DSL modem of $500.00 in 97
and then retail price of $200.00 each year after. These numbers also assume that the manufacture realizes
a 20 % profit margin on every sale.
What do you think? |
