Pat, glad you are back. I wish you would reconsider investing in NN<BG>
.Having bought back into NN I went back and rereadÿ
all previous posts i missed and discovered you sold.
I am sorry about that. Done that, been there, < VBG> andÿ
lived to regret it too. Well hey, nobody's perfect.
The important thing however is to be able and comeÿ
back and reevaluate previous decisions under new info/light
ÿand adjust them if necessary.
When NN tanked 10 days ago to 14 I said it will be a veryÿ
long time before I will ever look at it seriously.
Well, fortunately ( I hope ), I have learned never to say
never ( as Lawler will tell you now, GG ).
So, I decided to get back in because of the giant volume:
8 million shares plus. This is giant by NN standards
and giant by standards of a company that missed sales,disappointed
everybody on and on and on.
So what's going on?ÿ
I tend to be a great believer of the market.ÿ
When the market moves it is always good to listen:ÿ
It may be telling us something.
I think many people out there know something.
Wellÿ the most important thing I think is that I have heard fromÿ
Flynn and Lawlor for 1st time since 1995 the word
" we may sell at the right price ".
I think that the recount jolt TM got with Alan L. may have
ÿfocused him more.
Above all however the combination NN and ALA makes a lot of sense.
Europe's telecom market I think is about to explode soon.
Having been there few months ago I can see it. Europeans have always beenÿ
suspicious of new gadgets including PCs.
But they are not stupid.They will load up on broad band.
Now I am CERTAIN NOBODY will be ripping up streets downtownÿ
Paris or Rome to put fiber cable. There are too many laws
ÿprotecting potential buried archeology to do that.
So they will go copper, DSL, ADSL and wireless over ATM.
So both NN and ALA are strong in this, it makes sense.
I think with ALA's strong shares they will develop aÿ
formidable R&D rewire Europe and Asia ( where they areÿ
already strong ) and from there attack the US.
I think we must never forget what Telco gear golden boy Chambers/CSCO said last summer:
" The future of Telco Networks is IP + ATM." There ar emany competing IPs but NN is a stand out
in ATM. I think they will get the IP part easily from somewhere.ÿ
I am sure ALA with market cap of 80 bill can
fork out 10 bill for a Sycamores or a Cerent: there seems to be one out every few months.
On the other hand we must not forget the MCI/WCOM Lucent blackout debacle last summer
and the CSCO AT&T blackout last year. So NN's ATM are the only ones so far that have not
failed at the backbone.
I think a strong ALA / NN merger/ partnership will draw customers like fireflies to a light.
In Europe nationalistic feelings may even play a part.
Qualifier: some would call this a long shot, GG. Maybe it is.ÿ
But in investing the maxim is: nothing ventured nothing won,
TA |
