Here is my guess at a valuation based on comparable market valuations.
Palm's participation in OpenSky joint venture: $1.8 B. This is the same valuation that the other participant, Aether, gets.
Palm's palm.net, the Palm VII based wireless internet service: $2 B. This is a conservative valuation, a little more than OpenSky, since by IPO time it will be a going service with a proven track record.
Palm's PDA hardware business: $5 Billion. This is a conservative valuation of the hardware side of Palm. This is what generates all the revenue now, and is growing at an average of 100%. It will have a run rate of $1 Billion at the time of the IPO.
Palm's Palm OS, which is being licensed by a bunch of companies including Nokia and Qualcomm, and the Web clipping technology and associated browser: $10 Billion. IMO, this is a conservative estimate based on the valuation of Phone.com (PHCM), a company that makes just a WAP browser for wireless devices, whose current market valuation is $8 Billion.
So, the total for Palm is IMO, $16.8 Billion.
I will give the rest of COMS a conservative valuation of $10 Billion (this is a bit less than what it is right now for the whole company and includes the $3 Billion stash in cash and investments), for a total of $26.8 Billion, or a bit more than $75 / share. |
