Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (28927)	11/13/1999 9:41:00 PM
From: PJ Strifas	Read Replies (1) of 42771

Hello Paul, It's too late Paul. The opportunity is over. Anything Novell does at this point can be seen as desparate measures by someone who is afraid of "the big bad wolf". Novell should have been playing the market this past 15 months (since NetWare 5.0 shipped) with free or reduced pricing on NDS for NT and ZENworks. Seeding the market would have been Novell's greatest play but they let that slip away. I don't think there's anything Novell can do at this point but let Windows 2000 enter the market. Personally, I don't think it will have the impact everyone seems to think it will. MSFT will brag about it's numbers and the sales but it won't tilt the server market on it's ear. It's one thing to move your desktops another to move entire enterprises onto brand new systems (without proper training for your IT staff it will akin to driving without a license). I've been installing and "playing" with Windows2000 for the last year and I think it's a great improvement over Windows NT 4.0. Will that generate sales, you bet. My question is "how many of those sales are new sales and not just upgrades"? Those companies who have upgraded to NetWare 5.0 and are using NDS will not be convinced to drop this combo in favor of Redmond's latest behemoth. Novell needs to worry about those companies who are still using NetWare 3.x - these are the companies who would have the most to gain by dropping Novell. If Novell is willing to concede this market then Novell needs to move to the next batch who are in danger. Those companies still using NetWare 4.11 and NDS should be Novell's highest priority. They should be "selling" them into NetWare 5.0 at the lowest prices if they have to. They need to keep these companies AT ALL COSTS. Otherwise the numbers will show badly for Novell. In the end, it will take Novell to post good quarter numbers next spring for people to realize that Novell will survive and even grow as usual. I'm hoping that NDS and NDS related software revenues (ICS, BorderManager, GroupWise, ZENworks et al) can move ahead of NetWare sales. Peter J Strifas

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