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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: marc ultra who wrote (9849)11/14/1999 8:07:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (3) of 15132
 
Marc: Re: "Bob seemed to make a big point today that the time to really worry about the Nasdaq will be when it starts showing relative weakness instead of strength."

You mean I should not worry about it if it contnues to go parabolic <g>. I know one thing about parabolic rises. Most of them turn out badly eventually.

But one the subject of relative strength in the NASDAQ and momentum players being in that market, look at the INTC downgrade on Friday. It took 73 points off the NASDAQ in a nanosecond. Sure we recovered, but when does a single downgrade do so much damage in the NASDAQ? It is when momentum players have one foot in the exit door. Something to think about if you are watching your profits run in this sector and thinking how smart you are to be overweight in technology.

Re: " I wonder if that might make a good short trade if that point is able to be identified in its early stages, something you seem pretty good at."

I shorted QQQ in early October and rode it down from $127 - $129 to the low $120s. I did not short it when it surged to new highs above $130 in late October. The freakin' thing scared the crapola out of me on that move from a short perspective and I have let it run without argument. I think the best time to short it may be possibly torward the end of this week. Reasons: (1) Comdex winding down; (2) options expirations; (3) any Fed. rally would be in the market; (4) earnings season would be done and all the good news would be out. But when would one cover from a parabolic rise? I could not tell you at this point. Moreover, there has to be an easier way to earn a buck.
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