Frank,
Not to be nit picky -- okay, to be nit picky! :) -- but I'd like to delve into our thinking about the product adoption of EPGs. I think there is something to be learned here, and I'm reminded of it because of a private discussion I'm having this weekend about the lessons taught us by the CDMA adoption and the Qualcomm/Ericsson deal.
As well, since GI is the stb manufacturer and tvgia is soon to be a part of gmst, it signals a probable settlement of the <larger> digital portion of the gmst/gic lawsuit.
The first issue is that GI is one of the set-top box manufacturers, not the only one. If I remember the article correctly, AT&T is asking for bids from many competitors. No doubt Scientific Atlanta will be in that mix, second in size only to GI. There will surely be others such as Phillips, etc.
All of that leads to one central observation, that there is a very good possibility that the tornado is forming. It might come down from the sky and beginning touching the tops of hills in July, when set-top boxes will be in the retail stores, when there will be increased interest in the next generation boxes which of course include the digital ones not yet affected by the arbiter's decision.
If all that happens as we have every reason to believe it will, THAT is what will cause a settlement to take place if the arbiter doesn't force the issue. When GI sees the adopters such as AT&T having to pass GI up because they don't want to get in the mix of a law-suit involving unlawful use of Gemstar's IPR, GI will cave just as Ericsson did. But it will be the tornado that will force them to come to that conclusion (if not the arbiter), a tornado they will not want to miss.
In summary, I suspect that you and I are in agreement about what will happen. Where I think we might disagree is why it might happen. The "why" is at the core of gorilla gaming and the implications about understanding future investments are critical.
Just my opinion.
--Mike Buckley |
