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Technology Stocks : Newbridge Networks
NN 12.64+3.2%Nov 14 9:30 AM EST
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To: elmatador who wrote (14550)11/14/1999 2:44:00 PM
From: pat mudge  Read Replies (2) of 18016
 
See, there is this guy who sold -very successfully- NN stuff here in Europe and was appointed CEO. Now we have those Europeans ALA, Siemens and ERICY who want Cisco's skin nailed to their doors. Then there is a $200 billion dollar services market which operators fear a US-style deregulation will open 50% of it to the new entrants. These operators are the ones who have been buying the stuff the new NN CEO sold. Now if this scenario is played smartly, it is possible to give a nice kick in the butt of Cisco and -since they are already at it- kick the LU's too!

I agree with most of what you say, but to kick LU's shins, you have to be able to fight a price war. While Siemens may push Cisco to the wall in Europe, NN can't do the same to LU here in the US. Besides price, there's the not-so-small issue of politics.

Your forest and trees metaphor is correct. But how do you get far enough into the forest not only to see the trees but to examine the bark? Once you do that you'll be able to begin to put a value on the company.

Unfortunately, even if you could put the bark under a microscope -- and anyone who doesn't is a fool --- you'd have to factor in the absent-minded professor. A reality that defies market formulations.

Right now it appears everyone's describing the elephant by its tail.

Pat
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