2nd Quarter Income Statement Projection ........
MY FORECAST
(NON-AGGRESSIVE)
Candela Corporation (CLZR)
2nd Quarter - Fiscal 2000
Income Statement
with Revenue
by Distribution Channel
++++ means:New Distribution Channel
Current Price:$14.00 (11/14/99)
Primary Competition: ESCM/COHR
----------------------------------------------
Distribution Channel....Q2-2000........Q2-1999
----------------------------------------------
USA Regular..............4,500...........4,030
USA PSSI.................3,500...........0,000 ++++
USA Electrologists.......0,210...........0,000 ++++
USA Service..............0,950...........0,935
USA......................9,160...........4,965 +4,195 +84%
Japan Regular............3,800...........3,900
Japan Osaka..............1,100...........0,000 ++++
Japan Service............0,725...........0,720
Japan....................5,625...........4,620 +1,005 +22%
Europe Regular...........2,200...........2,320
Europe Service...........0,500...........0,500
Europe...................2,700...........2,820 -120 -4%
Brazil Regular...........0,400...........0,000 ++++
Brazil Service...........0,000...........0,000
Brazil...................0,400...........0,000 +400 +100%
Other Regular............0,070...........0,070
Other Service............0,010...........0,008
Other....................0,080...........0,078
----------------------------------------------
Lasers..................15,780..........10,320 +5,460 +53%
Service..................2,185...........2,163 +22 +1%
----------------------------------------------
Product.................17,965..........12,483 +5,482 +44%
Spa.....................00,850..........00,816
----------------------------------------------
Total Revenues .........18,815..........13,299 +5,516 +41%
==============================================
COGS ....................7,150...........6,499
COGS %...................38.0%...........49.0%
----------------------------------------------
Gross Margin ...........11,665...........6,800
Gross Margin %...........62.0%...........51.0%
==============================================
R&D .....................1,100...........0,760
R&D %.....................5.9%............5.7%
G&A .....................6,020...........4,213
G&A %....................32.0%...........31.7%
----------------------------------------------
TOE .....................7,120...........4,973
TOE %....................37.9%...........37.4%
----------------------------------------------
EBIT ....................4,545...........1,827
EBIT ....................24.2%...........13.7%
==============================================
Interest:
Expense..................0,127...........0,163
Income..................<0,235>.........<0,020>
----------------------------------------------
Net ....................<0,108>..........0,143
Other ...................0,000..........<0,079>
----------------------------------------------
EBT .....................4,653...........1,763
EBT .....................24.7%...........13.3%
==============================================
Tax % ...................20.0%...........21.0%
Tax $....................0,931...........0,370
----------------------------------------------
EAT .....................3,722...........1,393
EAT .....................19.8%...........10.5%
==============================================
DILUTED SHARES ..........8,100...........5,739
==============================================
E.P.S. ...................0.46............0.24
==============================================
E.P.S.:At Statutory Tax Rate of 35%
E.P.S. ...................0.37............0.24
==============================================
Notes:
==============================================
(1) Revenue Seasonalization
Q1 - Weakest
Q2 - 3rd Strongest
Q3 - 2nd Strongest
Q4 - Strongest
(2) Cash and Debt and Shares
Cash OVER $30 million
Debt LESS $2.7 million
Shares:8100 (fully diluted)
(3) Bonus Accruals
R&D above contains $240 in bonus accruals
G&A above contains $675 in bonus accruals
(4) Expected January Press Releases:
(a) Beat Analysts Estimate:1/12 - 1/13
(b) Actual Reported Earnings:1/21 - 1/22
(c) Q2 Revenues of 18,815 are a RECORD:1/21 - 1/22
(5) Trailing 12 Month E.P.S.:$1.62
(a) e.p.s. actual and projected
Q1-99 $0.16
Q2-99 $0.24
Q3-99 $0.31
Q4-99 $0.50
Q1-00 $0.35
Q2-00 $0.46 - Projected see Income Statement above
(6) USA Distribution Channels
(a) CLZR Direct Sales
----------------------------------------------
10,000 Dermatologists
07,000 Cosmetic Surgeons
------
17,000 Sub-Total
06,000 Electrologists Candela Distribution Channel
------
23,000 Total Distribution Channel Targets
======
33 Candela Sales Force (Includes people in Marketing)
======
(b) PSSI Direct Sales
----------------------------------------------
070,000 General and Family Practitioners
035,000 Obstetricians / Gynecologists
028,000 General / Vascular Surgeons
-------
133,000 PSS Total Distribution Channel Targets
=======
700 PSS Sales Force covering Distribution Channel
=======
(7) Revenue Contribution:PSSI (Inception to Date)
Fiscal 1999
----------------------------------------------
Q3A-1999 $1.2 million (17 equiv GentleLASE) - Actual
Q4A-1999 $2.5 million (36 equiv GentleLASE) - Actual
----------------------------------------------
Yr-1999 $3.7 million (53 equiv GentleLASE) - Actual
==============================================
Fiscal 2000
--------------------------------
Q1A-2000 $2.5 million (36 equiv GentleLASE) - Actual
Q2F-2000 $3.5 million (50 equiv GentleLASE) - Projection
==============================================
Yr-2000 $6.0 million (86 equiv GentleLASE)
(8) New Product Announcement:Eribium Laser
I expect CLZR to release a new Eribium laser for
Skin Resurfacing by 3/31/00.
This product could become the next GentleLASE type
KILLER APP dependent on how well the end consumer
adopts to this NEW WAY to resurface the skin.
Current Skin Resurfacing requires approx. 6 weeks
healing time. That is .... you have to go into
a closet and hide your face for 6 weeks.
The new methodology would require NO HEALING time
but would REQUIRE the consumer to make approx
5 or 6 SHORT visits to the doctor.
regards,
John McCarthy
|
