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Technology Stocks : NorthPoint Communications Holdings, Inc. (NPNT)

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To: Brasco One who wrote (290)	11/14/1999 5:40:00 PM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (1) of 786

DSL even though it doesn't have the same PtoP distribution topology, still slows just like cable under substantial load. The effect may be more pronounced than with cable. Upstream isn't a concern in the home market and symmetry is near in cable. You are reading too many self-serving DSL IPO prospectuses. Security problems are no worse with cable. Where's the weak link in cable? Access to print and file sharing? The weak link in both isn't very weak and the weakness in commerce is mainly an issue for banks guaranteeing against credit card theft. Neither technology has any better status there. If you want to steal from the lines or offices, the technologies are equally penetrable. At 5 miles depending on the copper circuit and its path you get the fade at low speed. With certain forms of DSL the quality deterioration curve is slower, but drops off more abruptly as the 4 mile limit is exceeded. The 12,00o feet limit is the stnadard benchmark figure. DSL can't compete with cable outside 2 miles. Practical installations show that downloading is superior by cable. The current model of signal aggregators in the CO will soon be replaced by more robust models and more of them per unit expenditure. You don't mean you have to be about 3 miles away, you mean that signal quality drops off proportionately with distance from the aggregator and becomes problematic at 3 miles. I've seen good 92kbps feed at 4 miles. Cable didn't have a head start whatever you mean by "head start". I was studying AWRE in '94. They had a ready-to-go solution in '96, 1 1/2 years before ATHM went public. The problem was that the RBOCs didn't want to go there. They didn't believe the Net was anything and they feared getting into cable or DSL because it would break up their monopolies. So they sat on development. The copper infrastructure is already substantially in place certainly more so than the required HFC upgrade which can't be necessarily extended to the extent that DSL can through the copper infrastructure DSLAM limitations not withstanding. Since you know nothing about cable it isn't worthwhile making the claim that people would drop cable for DSL. If DSL gets a foothold in the home market quite the opposite is likely to occur. It is in cable's interest to have the intermediate solution take the build-out cost pressure off the backs of cable MSOs. The thing is that cable is pursuing the home market and DSL is pursuing business. The two markets are significantly different. To make a flip comment that people want to do e-commerce implies nothing. Cable will produce the lion's share of home originated e-commerce, because cable's penetration there will continue to be substantially above DSL's. Cable growth is now starting to enter the rapid portion of the S-curve upswing, whereas DSL is several years behind and will have to go through much infrastructure development pain just like cable has. During that time cable will be flying. DSL is in the beginning phase where a low base makes the % gains look impressive. The telcos and CLECs are offering DSL at a premium to cable for the home market. That doesn't help growth even if cable isn't available. People gag at anything above $40. Why are the telcos et al doing this? You have the A or not A mentality. That means that you don't believe a rising tide raises all boats. It's zero sum X steals from Y to succeed thinking. That isn't what is happening in high speed.

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