taxman, my good friend, MSFT is very much a confusing topic for me these days. As you know, it makes up quite a bit of my retirement (vbg), and I have yet to make up my mind which way it goes over the next twelve months.
On a technical level, the stock is due for a breakout. It has traded in its range for several months now, and history tells us that the stock just plain rallies once a three month or so consolidation period is completed...this time, however, something smells different about its trading. For the first time since I've owned it, I just don't know where it's headed. On the one hand, we have Windows 2000 due out this Winter...and it's going to be a huge success. Forget all the jargon about Linux (though I am actually starting to use it myself for some applications!), W2K is going to be huge. On the other hand, however, the trial news just keeps getting worse and worse. Many shareholders/institutional holders of the stock that I talk to are now starting to diversify their holdings out of MSFT *based on the litigation environment* surrounding the stock, and not because they're looking to simply reallocate their percentages. This is the first time I've smelled this action...and on some level it makes me very nervous.
I will always hold shares of MSFT as long as I live, barring some unforseen problem with their business model. But for the first time in a long time I am starting to focus some of my attentions outside of the Redmond campus as I look to build the next tier of my portfolio. Having said this, the stock will probably rocket after the first of the year...and it very well might. I am merely struggling to find the right balance between holding MSFT and the rest of the pearls I seem to be finding on the bottom of the ocean floor. I'm not doing anything in the near term...I'm going to let the news flush out a little more on MSFT's new directions of attack. The bad news is out for the near term and I'm convinced Mr. Gates has been holding out on us for the past few months while waiting for the "Findings of Fact". I wouldn't be surprised to see some *extremely aggressive* announcements by MSFT as we move into the new millenium.
Stay in touch :)
Teflon |
