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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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To: Smooth Drive who wrote (33436)	11/15/1999 4:25:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) of 99985

Hi all, been a while. All I can say is I was befuddled by the action last week. I read a few articles that simply put have the experts confused also. Semis in all past rallies were trading at 2-3 times sales but now are trading at 20-30 times sales despite some market leaders having bleak future outlooks. QCOM as someone pointed out, trades down after announcing new technology but soon as a split is announced, trades up to an almost double. The market should be slightly bullish but not this bullish. The casino mentality is back with only the morons really making money and the rest that know how to really value and trade having to settle for scraps or else trade with a minute by minute ingestion of rolaids knowing this could all blow up at any time. ANyway here are some things to consider for this week. I show the (previously known as Max Pain) at 715 for the OEX. I also show some very well fitting bearish forks coming into play soon based on projected prices extremely close to our present values on the indexes. These forks basically show that this was a bear rally and we could head down from here soon. We are already at the level required on the NYSE but could rise slightly more on the other indexes. This is strange also since I am basically bullish for the intermediate term but this fork fits very very well. It is formed by Starting the mid tine from the 19 July high and connects the highs of mid August and October 11th. The bottom tine is from the low of 18 October and the top tine is projected for the highs of this time frame. Anyone else other than Don notice that the new lows are still over 100 and new highs are below 100 with almost a 2-1 ratio of new lows beating new highs?????? I am not sure what could cause these markets to drop news wise as it seems that ample glue supplies have been distributed to the masses but that is what the charts show. From what I hear in the news, the market is expected to rally no matter what the Fed does. My stuff shows almost all indicators over bought. This rally has been even narrower than the previous narrow rallies but there was some broadening in a few beaten down stocks I track so if this does go into a full blown blow off top, there could be better participation down the road. OX posted on another thread that if QCOM moves 10 points, the NDX moves 15 points which explains why most of the tech leaders were flat to down Friday yet the QQQ managed to move up another 2 points. Lastly, Gary Wisdom, congratulations on making my ignore list. PS - I also noticed that you deny having any interest in DELL now that it fell instead of "burying shorts" as you predicted. Typical. I will post a article from Barrons after this post I thought worth a read. Good Luck, Lee

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