A guide to cellular R&D -- and what it will do for you
By DAVID PRINGLE
LONDON -- From modest handsets to full-blown media terminals, that's where
proponents of "third generation" mobile phones say we're going. But to get
there, a number of technological advances have to occur.
Basically, we're talking about a fortyfold increase in transmission speed.
The extra zip will make it possible, for instance, to view video clips with
a handset. The International Telecommunications Union defines a
third-generation mobile as one that can carry 384 kilobits per second over a
wide area and two megabits per second in a smaller, defined area, such as an
office block or a shopping center. Currently, most mobile systems transmit
data at 9.6 kbit/s.
Nokia Corp., Motorola Inc. and Telefon AB L.M. Ericsson are following
similar technological paths, while Microsoft Corp. is charting a different
course. Here's a look at the technologies and target dates.
HSCSD
When: Late 1999
HSCSD (high-speed circuit switched data) technology will increase
data-transfer speeds by at least a factor of four. Allowing a continuous
flow of data, the technology should be suitable for transmitting video
pictures; however, its top speed of about 58 kbit/s will place tight limits
on image size and quality.
The Buzz:
Nokia says 19 European operators -- including Telia AB of Sweden, Sonera
Corp. of Finland and Orange PLC of the U.K. -- are planning to introduce
HSCSD into their networks. But there is some skepticism about the
technology, which is already in use in Singapore. Says Justine Hays,
principal analyst at the Yankee Group Europe: "A lot of operators are going
straight to GPRS, which is packet-based."
EPOC
When: End of 1999
THE EPOC operating system will be one of the first full-scale systems to be
used in a mobile phone. The Symbian consortium, which includes Finland's
Nokia, Sweden's Ericsson and Motorola of the U.S., designed the system to
make sure it won't drain phone batteries or overload memory capacity.
The Buzz:The heavy hitters involved in Symbian make this a significant
technology. But the system will face rivals such as Microsoft's Windows CE.
WAP
When: Late 1999
WAP-BASED services will make their debut late this year. WAP -- which stands
for wireless application protocol -- is a language used to construct Web
pages. Advocates of WAP say that HTML, the language in which most Web pages
are written, is too complex and graphics-oriented for devices with small
screens, limited battery life and low access speeds. WAP, in contrast,
strips the page down to its bare bones, boosting download speeds fourfold.
Microsoft has shrugged off WAP, instead investing in microbrowsers that
distill HTML pages. Still, some analysts see massive WAP momentum. "There is
not a major operator in Europe that is not backing WAP," says Ms. Hays. Adds
Olli Oittinen, vice president of Nokia's system marketing and sales: "There
are close to a thousand companies actively developing WAP-based services at
the moment."
The Buzz:In the short term, mobile-phone manufacturers may support both WAP
and HTML. In the longer term, both languages may converge into another new
Internet language, XML.
Bluetooth Applications
When: Early 2000
BLUETOOTH, BASED on short-range radio technology, is a standard for wireless
communication between electronic devices in the same vicinity, such as
mobile phones and printers. Bluetooth signals can be transmitted around
corners, removing the need for a "line of sight" between devices.
The Buzz:Bluetooth has big-name backers, including Ericsson, International
Business Machines Corp., Intel Corp., Nokia and Toshiba Corp. Developers say
Bluetooth will be inexpensive and frugal with battery power.
GPRS
When: Early 2000
ERICSSON SEES general packet radio services technology as the first step
toward a wireless Internet -- but it will be an expensive one. The
technology requires a data network to be laid on top of existing GSM
networks. What GPRS offers, though, is the potential to boost data transfer
speeds tenfold. GPRS also promises to make more efficient use of GSM
networks than HSCSD: By transferring data in packets, it forgoes a
continuous server-handset connection.
The Buzz:GPRS technology will coax a lot of e-mail traffic onto mobile
networks, predicts Nokia's Mr. Oittinen. Meanwhile, Yankee Group, a telecoms
consultancy, warns that data-transfer speeds of more than 56 kbit/s aren't
likely to be seen early on, with the technology only reaching its full
potential in 2002.
VML
When: Late 2000
MOBILE PHONES will have voice-activated Web browsers, using voice mark-up
language. Motorola, AT&T Corp. and Lucent Technologies Inc. developed the
technology, which will allow users to navigate the Web by verbal command,
eliminating the need for a keyboard or pointer device.
The Buzz:The technology should be a hit for car applications.
Java Applications
When: Late 2000
MOBILE PHONES will run programs written in the popular Java
computer-programming language. Network operators are likely to send small
Java programs across the Internet to their customers' mobile phones.
The Buzz:The technology will spur new services. "With a prepaid phone, for
example, a Java applet might appear on your screen telling you how much
airtime you have left and asking if you would like to use it to purchase a
CD instead," says Dominic Strowbridge, Motorola's technology-marketing
manager.
EDGE
When: 2001
WHAT EDGE stands for is enhanced data rates for GSM evolution. What it will
provide is data transmission of up to 384 kbit/s over existing frequencies.
The Buzz: The technology will probably appeal to operators lacking licenses
for "third-generation" frequencies. But EDGE has limits: Transfer speeds
deteriorate as the user gets further away from a cell, the fixed connection
point, making it less useful in rural areas.
UMTS
When: Late 2002
THIRD-GENERATION networks will depend on universal mobile telecommunications
system, a technology that allows data to be transferred in packets as
quickly as via fixed-line networks. Within a defined area, such as an office
or factory, speeds of 2 mbit/s will be possible; for a wider area, the rate
falls to 384 kbit/s. Even at the slower speed, the technology offers
high-speed Internet access, fast file transfers and high-quality video.
The Buzz: These capabilities will come at a price: UMTS requires a new
backbone network and base-station subsystem infrastructure. An operator in a
major European country might have to spend $1.5 billion to provide UMTS
nationwide, predicts Yankee Group. For this reason, UMTS will likely be
deployed selectively, starting with city centers.
BRAN
When: 2003
UMTS WILL spawn the development of BRAN, or broadcast radio access network,
technologies. UMTS will lead to the development of very high-speed wireless
networks within office blocks.
The Buzz: Nokia estimates that these local area networks could provide
speeds of up to 11 mb/s.
IP Era
When: 2004
FIVE YEARS from now, all mobile traffic could be based on the cheap and
efficient Internet protocol. By exploiting the high bandwidth made available
by UMTS technology, it should be possible to make good quality voice calls
from mobile phones using IP. It would involve transferring packets of data.
The Buzz: In theory, complete IP networks would allow consumers to use their
mobile phones to send video images around the world for the cost of a local
call. "The ultimate aim," says Motorola's Mr. Strowbridge, "is to have the
world united by a common Internet backbone." |
