Looks like a big profit-taking selloff on Q! Sell on the news must be the rule of thumb, combined with nothing grows to the sky, sell half and hold the rest, what goes up must come down, the bigger they are the harder they fall, etc etc. But it was fun to see the $406 get touched intraday!
Not to worry. China is a go! Heck, that will be fun. As you say, Japan cdmaOne is going bananas. I saw somebody claim the teenage girl market drives Japan.
The population age distribution is uniform [with a gap where 80 year old men should be - I guess the war created that] and the younger age groups are declining as a proportion of the population.
So, teenage girls, ages 13 to 19 cover a 7 year range. Maybe they mean under 20s, so make it an 8 year range. That's a tenth of the female population [they live to 80]. That's a twentieth of the total population.
Sure, they are more likely to buy than children and old people, so if we exclude 0-12 and 70-80 we are left with teenage girls versus, 5 other 10 year age ranges for females and 6 age ranges for males. 11 groups which equal the teenage girls. So the teenage girls are about 10% of those who might have cellphones. Sure, they will be active buyers of cellphones, but even so, they are just another market segment.
Sure, they will talk flat out and will want an el cheapo talk heaps out of school hours plan. So they will offset the more profitable business hours callers. They will be great for the handset makers, but not so great for the profit of the service providers.
Since cdmaOne can produce cheap, good quality minutes, they will prefer to buy a cdmaOne phone for off-peak bulk yakking in a Cricket Plan approach.
Teenage girls will NOT rescue PHS nor slow the advance of cdmaOne.
With China now a confirmed deal, cdmaOne can roll out there too. 2000 will be a very big CDMA tsunami.
Meanwhile, Q down in a plunge! What fun.
Mqurice |
