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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club

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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (9868)	11/15/1999 5:19:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) of 15132

FWIW, went trading long on (ITW) Illinois Tool Works at $62 and change and will add if further weakness presents itself. What, Justa, no technology? I am reducing technology trades as that sector has been played and I want to diversify. Illinois Toll is a manufacturing conglomerate. It recently agreed to merge with Premark in a modestly accretive stock swap deal which should close next week. The stock has suffered since the announcement in early September for the following reasons: (1) Some investors see Tyco II. (2) Some investors question the deal. (3) Arbitrage selling is present. The money flow from Birinyi Associates is quite positive. There is heavy and consistent block (institution) and non-block (retail) buying and it has the highest rating of 5,5 on this scale. This reinforces my view that I am seeing arbitrage selling here. There has been extremely high volume in the shares the past week as a bottom is discovered. I see downside risk to $58 per share and upside at $75 for a 20% trade at the current closing price of $63 today. This one is for aggressive traders.

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