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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (9885)11/15/1999 6:11:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (4) of 15132
 
Wally: Re: "I think Uncle Al will play Scrooge & increase by a quarter point (and for good measure, leave the bias on......) <g>"

I am counting on a rate hike here. I would be surprised to see him let this opportunity pass. Most all of the talking heads look to the past and say there is no reason to raise rates. But Greenspan is being preemptive. This is what they miss here. And he must see the markets are ready to rally and he must see it is going to be one happy holiday season and he knows the labor pool is as tight as it gets.

I also beleive he will go to neutral or drop the bias deal all together. I think he will hope that this combination will put a lid on the market and economy somewhat. He will then let the economic numbers speak for him and go to the rubber chicken circuit if things get out of hand.

One should not forget the discount rate option. It is largely symbolic but may help him send a message to the market

Look at the nets today ... they are getting all dressed up and are ready to party once again.

Re: "If so, Bonds should like it (?) but Stocks should cool......."

Yes, if that happens bonds would rally because bonds would love to see a recession. The high flyers would get hammered. Market clearly does not expect this option to be played out.
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