Lyle, re: "Mr. Dell said he was looking at ATHLON on CNBC. Looks like another down day for INTC tomorrow."
I'd be disappointed with Mr. Dell if he were not looking at any and all suppliers. That doesn't mean he will select them.
Let's see, it's November 15, Christmas is 45 days way. Questions:
1. How many major box makers have announced Athlon products?
2. Can those that haven't announced product have PC's available for the best PC season?
3. Most of the major retailers have their Christmas advertising put to bed, can Athlon sell without advertising?
4. Will the high end consumer pay premium prices for a secondary brand name?
5. If you get off SI into the real world, and ask 100 consumers if they have heard of Athlon, how many will say "yes"?
6. If you ask 100 consumer the same question about "Pentium", how many will say "yes"?
7. Is name recognition important to sales?
8. Are the box makers asking the above questions?
9. Assuming Mr. Sanders production estimates are correct, if Athlon doesn't sell well in the 4th quarter, what will the excess inventory do to AMD's EPS numbers?
The 4th quarter is history. Maybe AMD will take high end market share from Intel in the future, but it will be an uphill battle, and if you were handicapping a horse race, you would have give AMD very long odds.
Bet the long shot, good luck.
John |
