RE the CBS MarketWatch analysis: $0.39 vs $1.15 Hooray!!
"Ligand's net loss of 39 cents a share for 3rd quarter was greater than the 31 cents a share loss expected by analysts but an improvement over the $1.15 per share loss posted the same period last year."
This is MUCH better than thinking of it as a 26% negative surprise! <G>
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Ligand's Net Loss in 3Q98 was only $18.306M, vs $46.275M in 3Q99. Terrific improvement, huh?
BUT, 3Q98 expenses included a one-time $30M write-off of acquired in-process technology
-- due to the Seragen acquisition.
Without that 30 million, the 3Q98 Net loss was $16.275M, and the loss per share was only 0.34.
SO, the comparable loss per share is really $0.39 vs 0.34.
ALSO, this quarter's loss was computed using 7 million more shares than in 3Q98.
Without the dilution-fattened denominator, this quarter's loss would have been $0.45.
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ALSO, note the rising Interest Expense -- $3.551M vs 1.933M in 3Q98 -- on the Elan Notes.
It's rising faster than Ontak's Sales.
By the way, the $20 Million additional notes exercised 8/27 (for regular company expenses) make the current Working Capital ($35.5M at quarter end) look viable. (Ten million in Notes remain.) Enough capital for 2 1/2 more quarters of typical losses ...
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They say there's three kinds of lies -- and one of them is statistics ...
IMO, rational hope for a sustainable rise in Ligand's near-term price is based on good news at the December 13 Committee meeting AND on quick, profitable, off-label commercialization of Targretin
-- not on deceitful number games
-- or on the shaky balance sheet of an R&D company struggling to transition to independence.
Looking toward December 13th,
Cheryl |
