GRIN (Grand Toys International Inc) Message Board

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Non-Tech : GRIN (Grand Toys International Inc)

GRIN 27.30

+1.1%

Dec 3 3:54 PM EST

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To: Dako who wrote (452)	11/16/1999 4:56:00 PM
From: Frank McVerry	Read Replies (2) of 495

My latest valuations for GRIN (These valuations are based on latest 3Q earnings and management's expectations for 1999 net sales) Estimated sector prices based on the average stock in the Toys and Games sector Based on average sector PE ratio, GRIN price would be $28.72 Based on average sector price/revenue ratio, GRIN price would be $15.13 Based on average sector price/book ratio , GRIN price would be $14.95 (in other words, GRIN's projected year-end PE, price/rev and price/book are all lower than the average stock in 'Toys & Games' sector) Based on a free cash flow analysis, GRIN price would be $13.53 Based on management's growth expectations, GRIN 'fair' price would be $67 The average of these estimates is $27.80 Conclusion: The risk/reward for GRIN looks very attractive with maximum logical downside risk to $13.5 but a rewarding $67 could be available if management successfully executes on its 100% top-line growth and can bring this to its bottom line. Just my 2c, Frank McV

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