Dear limtex:
If you go to the Last Mile Thread, you will see that
together with PeterE, wireless-wonk, Dave Horne, and
many of the regulars, we have dissected extensively the
capabilities of CSCO's VOFDM system. This system is
targeted primarily at MMDS and IFM frequencies.
It should be very attractive to WCOM when it
starts exploiting its large MMDS footprint. Because
the total data rates affordable by MMDS are not quite
as large as LMDS rates, and because CSCO's VOFDM does not
require pure line of sight, I anticipate the end
market will be primarily residential, rather than
businesses, so it will not truly compete head to head
with WCII, ARTT, NXLK, and TGNT.
Nevertheless, I am impressed by CSCO's system. If
it works as advertised, the WCOM/FON move in grabbing
MMDS licenses will appear masterful in retrospect.
I would rank this move even higher than Craig McCaw's
purchase of WNP to secure a national LMDS footprint
for NXLK (these two strategic moves are probably
the two major events of the year 1999 thus far).
CSCO will have also achieved a spectacular move to
the heart the broadband wireless equipment mass market.
For a company which viewed the Last Mile as cable + DSL
about 18 months ago, and was professing to be uninterested
in wireless (may be a smokescreen), this move represents
some major catching up. So, the winners appear to be
again the usual suspects: CSCO and WCOM, as well as
US consumers who will have one more attractive
option for Internet access. The losers? First, all
the early MMDS investors who lost their shirt (I
am thinking of CAWS investors), and probably companies
such as ADAP and CAMP that were figuring to dominate
the wireless MMDS equipment market.
Best regards,
Bernard Levy |
