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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)
NOK 6.590+0.9%Dec 24 9:30 AM EST
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To: JP Sullivan who wrote (2735)11/17/1999 10:01:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen  Read Replies (1) of 34857
 
Hard to say where the US market is going. It seems to be exploding into every direction at once: Palm Pilots, WinCE devices, CDMA smarphones, iDEN smartphones, TDMA smartphones, GSM smartphones, two-way pagers, one-way pagers, etc. Confusion through fragmentation is a very good way to kill off consumer interest.

PDA's never really took off in Europe or Asia the same way they did in USA - they might be buried by smartphones next year. I don't see what's the attraction of a portable organizer if it doesn't have voice applications and does not access mobile networks with wide coverage. Some of these "portable internet" devices in USA access weird pager or mobile data networks that do not have coverage outside of city centers. Where exactly is this RIM thing going in the future, anyway?

There's a fair chance that European/African/Asian markets can reach some coherence next year with 10-15 competing smartphone models using two platforms: Palm Pilot-interfaced phones and EPOC-interfaced phones. Devices that use mobile networks covering 95-99% of the population. The top seven brands that consumers are already familiar with. Enough choice to foster competition, but in a context that doesn't seem threateningly complex. Two-way paging is not there to mess up the market and complicate the situation.

Tero

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