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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
QCOM 166.05+0.6%Nov 19 3:59 PM EST
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To: Voltaire who wrote (50474)11/17/1999 4:04:00 PM
From: jakers12  Read Replies (3) of 152472
 
V-

As mentioned on yahoo msg board, it is a fair rule of thumb that the growth
in subscribers of CDMA is the same in the growth in the EPS for QCOM.
For instance, between June and Sept 1999, the number of subscribers
using CDMA (either SPrint in USA or Samsung in Korea/Japan) grew
by 22%. In the exact same quarter, QCOMS EPS grew from 75c/share
to 91c/share or by 21%.

QCOM stated in their year ending conference call to analysis they
expect gain 70 Million new subscribers in 2000. A 25% growth rate
per quarter would account for 59 M new users. Ok, so let's use
a 25% growth model, how will their EPS be???

QCOM: EPS (%growth), Subs (%growth)

dec 97: .29 () 7.8M
mar 98: .13 (-55%) 9.2M (18%)
jun 98: .17 (31%) 12.1M (32%)
sep 98: .27 (59%) 16.0M (32%)
dec 98: .32 (19%) 23.0M (44%)
mar 99: .41 (28%) 28.5M (24%)
jun 99: .75 (83%) 33.6M (18%)
sep 99: .91 (21%) 41.0M (22%)

dec 99 1.14 (25%) 51.2M
mar 00 1.42 63.7M
jun 00 1.78 80.0M
sep 00 2.23 100.0M
----
yr00:EPS 6.57

However, the $6.57 EPS does not include the LOSS QCOM has
of 18c/share PER quarter for their handset division. QCOM have
public stated that they will announce the sale of this division by
1999 end. There it is reasonable to add 18*4 = 72c/share to 6.57.

Therefore, fiscal 2000 QCOM could reach $7.29 EPS.

i will assume that QCOM will hold onto it's 90 PE.

90 * 7.29 = $650. Therefore i expect QCOM to reach $650/share fiscal
year end and $700/share calendar year end 2000

-jakers.
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