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Technology Stocks : Vodafone-Airtouch (NYSE: VOD)
VOD 15.72+3.1%Feb 4 3:59 PM EST

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To: hl who wrote (2104)11/17/1999 4:07:00 PM
From: Brad Patton  Read Replies (1) of 3175
 
Kai, Thanks for your comments about the German system. I think I would be more worried as a Mannesmann shareholder than a Vodafone one. Here is how I see the some of the scenarios (and the affect on short-term stock prices):

1. Vodafone drops the bid:
Mannesmann shares lose most of their recent 40% run-up (because its been on takeover speculation and because they are overpaying for Orange). Vodafone regains some of its recent arbitrage loses.

2. Vodafone ups the bid; Mannesmann fights it
Vodafone shares sag in arbitrage play while Mannesmann shares stay somewhere between the recent lows and bid price.

3. Vodafone ups the bid; Mannesmann accepts
I believe this is the best case scenario. I trust VOD management to not overpay to dearly and while the short-term price may sag long-term its for the best. Mannesmann shareholders get their premium.

This is just my idle speculation. I am confident in VOD to find other deals if this one falls though. Mannesmann has locked up their options for a while with the high price for Orange.
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