Heinz, I have talked with a few other traders I respect tonight and we can't figure out what would hold this market down though. I was fairly bullish but today's drop sure looked like at least a short term top to me. Now what makes this top significant is that it makes the fork I spoke of the other day still valid just when I thought it was going to not be in play. If you use the 19 July high as the mid tine start point, the 18 October low as the bottom tine and today's high as the top tine start point, the middle tine contains all the previous highs on the DOW, SPX, OEX, NDX, NASDAQ and almost the NYSE although the peaks come a little short on that one. This fork projects a sideways channel for the NASDAQ, NDX and down channels for the other indexes of some signifignace. Now if the Fed were to announce a tightening bias in December, that could dampen spirits in that time frame and a few bad economic reports could get fears going for a week or two before the meeting but I just don't see anything to hold us back for the next 3 weeks news wise. What are we missing? Like I posted this morning, EVERYONE is bullish and proclaiming the sky isn't even a limit anymore. I literally got shivers down my spine when that guy (a "professional") said there was no such thing as an over priced stock. The stage is set, what is the spark? Oil prices, commodities, a war with Russia, Natural disaster? Heck wars are seen as bullish now and if an earthquake hit silicon valley, they would probably spin it as bullish due to rebuilding requirements for AMAT or else bid up competing companies that are located elsewhere.
Also I will try to find the story in print but there was a spot on TV about some guy that apparently came up with a Y2K fix years ago and got a patent on it then kept his mouth shut. Now 40 days before Y2K, he suddenly remembers he has this patent and wants payment in billions for the fix that was used by 80% of Fortune 500 companies and that IBM already admitted using for fixing all their clients systems. This could possibly become big IMO as lawsuits could shoot up all over the place.
EDIT found one version of the story here....
Friday November 12 08:30 PM EST
Y2K fix: The price just went up
Joe Belden, ZDNet
A popular Y2K fix may end up giving companies the shock of the century.
The inventor of the technique known as "windowing" is sending out bills for thousands, and in some cases millions, of dollars.
"Windowing" is a quick and cheap solution. It tricks computers into interpreting certain numbers (such as "00" through "29") as belonging to the 21st Century. Larger numbers are interpreted as 20th Century dates.
The Giga Information Group estimates it is used by as many as nine out of ten companies to make sure their systems recognize dates beyond 1999. Few of them are aware that Boeing Co. software developer Bruce Dickens holds the patent.
Now he has begun sending letters to Fortune 500 companies, asking for royalties.
He wants payments based on company revenues, with the price going up 100 times after the first of the year.
That means a company taking in $1 billion a year would have to pay $2.5 million.
Kazim Isfahani, an industry analyst with Giga Information, says he expects the companies will reject the demand for money. He notes that some government agencies used windowing in the 1960s to fix software that used only one digit for the year.
See this story in context on ZDNet
dailynews.yahoo.com
Good Luck,
Lee
PS - KM, CMGI was a pick at my site yesterday also, and I had it as a pick for a few days last week in the 90s <ggg> |
