Larry,
You said,
"Lev said they wouldn't have the equipment to do a $ 250 mm run rate until sometime in 2001"
Where did he say this? I was under the impression that he and others have said that he would have that equipment in place sometime in Q4 2000. I believe if you or others call the company, you will find out that the equipment was in fact already ordered several weeks ago, in conjunction with a similar order from Hanil.
On another topic, the company on several occasions has estimated a breakeven of approximately $ 40 mm per annum or $ 10 mm/quarter. If this is correct, then I would guess that the remaining $ 160 mm in a $ 200 mm 2001 would have a gross profit of 65% and a pretax profit of at least 40%.
The tax rate should be less than 20% (NI VAT and Grand Caymens incorporation), which should leave a 30% after tax margin on the incremental $ 160 mm or somewhere in excess of $ 1.00/share fully diluted eps.
These estimates, of course, exclude joint venture and licensing income, which I expect we will see in 2000 and 2001.
These are, of course, rough guesstimates, but the bottom line, I believe, is that operating performance will surprise investors, assuming they can attain the requisite revenue growth. |
