Well, I've done it. I've read all of the postings since the beginning of the thread this past February. The first post I read was approximately message #6000 when I decided to spend part of the Labor Day weekend investigating what the Gorilla Game was all about. I then decided to read the most recent few hundred posts and found an extremely cordial group with backgrounds not dissimilar from mine. I was so impressed that I then decided to read from the beginning to find out how this group came to be, why the Q was mentioned so frequently, and when the Round Table monikers were assigned. I introduced myself in message # 6116 (anyone else like numerical palindromes, fibonacci sequences, etc.?) and said that I would be back someday after I had done my homework.
I underestimated how long it would take to catch up. While I was trying to read the first 5000 messages, another 4000 were added in the interim. I would read the current messages daily and backfill once or twice a week when I could find the time. Tekboy and others have minimized the effort required, but I think this option will be more and more difficult for other newcomers to accomplish. If I started today it would take me twice as long (20 weeks) to catch up. Of course Sir Ares probably does not have to move his lips when he reads.
Two weeks ago I was elated when I thought I was nearing the finish line. I had it in my mind that I had started at Post #4000, and so as I passed #3500 I had an adrenaline rush to finish those last few clicks. At 10 clicks/100 postings it would not take me long. It wasn't until after I crossed what I thought was the finish line that I realized the messages between 4000 and 4100 did not look familiar to me. I jumped ahead and they still did not look familiar. Perhaps my first post from September would give me a clue where I started - it did- I had another 1000 messages to read. My euphoria evaporated.
Now this strange feeling of voyeurism has replaced the euphoria. I feel that I know many of you and realize that you don't know that I have been watching these last 10 weeks. The purpose of this posting is not to add to the G&K discussion, but to step in from the street, enter the tavern and introduce myself. I'll try to be more substantial in future posts.
I took an active interest in investing about 5 years ago. After reading a few books I subscribed to Morningstar so that I could choose the best mutual funds. After careful consideration I selected several 4 and 5 star funds and made sure I had a mix of large cap, small cap, foreign and domestic funds. I continued to read magazine articles and books on investing while watching my investments soar. Well, not really. The more I read about mutual funds and the more I observed my returns, the less I like mutual funds. About this time I decided to read the Motley Fool on AOL. I had been a member since 1993, but did not pay any attention to the Fool when it first came out.
The Fool was my major motivation to dump the funds and buy some stocks. After reading Peter Lynch I decided to invest in companies whose products I used or were local and undiscovered. So I bought Netscape shortly after the IPO because I used their browser, and a passel of local stocks, careful to make sure I bought only a little of each in case bad things might happen.
I also bought Iomega after reading about it on MF (100 @ 15). I bought another 100 shares a couple months later before selling both tranches (tekboyspeak) the next month for a 2 bagger and a 6 bagger. This was great! Now if I only had bought a bit more in the first place it would have amounted to something. In the words of Gary Gaetti from the local team who won the 87 World Series, "I swing hard in case I hit the ball." This taught me the downside to diversification.
Pretty soon I was making larger bets on fewer stocks, still looking for undiscovered opportunities to get there before the Street. I also bought CSCO because of the Boring Portfolio on MF, as well as the Foolish Four. By 97 I decided that NSCP would not be the next MSFT, and so bought the latter after selling the former. Both CSCO and MSFT looked drastically overpriced, but I decided to hold my nose, buy them, and see how they did a year later. It turns out they did alright. My first GG lesson, though I did not know that.
By 98 I was introduced to the Gilder Report, and I replaced the still undiscovered local stocks with GG Ascendant Technology companies: TLAB, CIEN, and UNPH. The first two quickly tanked as their proposed merger dissolved, and I began to shift their investment into EMC a few months later. UNPH became JDSU and has become an 8 bagger in less than 18 months of ownership. My sleuthing of local undiscovered gems didn't get me very far, but some of the recommendations from the Motley Fool and George Gilder added substantially, especially after I lost my fear of betting too much on any one stock.
1999 has been an absolutely stellar year so far. The 30-40% returns of past years have become 10 times that in 99. In no small part this is due to one of the local stocks I began buying in 96, ANCR. I stuck with Ancor through thick and thin and thinner and thinner until this year it finally paid off - 15 bagger YTD.
Alas, this is not a Gorilla Game success story, however it is one of the reasons I was interested in the GG. I invested way too early in ANCR. In 96 profitability seems just 6-9 months away. In 97 it was definitely just 6 months away. In 98 there were all sorts of problems, yet they survived. Fibre Channel was discovered by the Street this year, and coupled with an OEM agreement with SUNW, the stock has octupled in 5 months.
The GG book, and more importantly this G&K thread, has changed my perspective and portfolio. I have condensed my holdings to 6 stocks: CSCO, EMC, GMST, JDSU, QCOM, and ANCR. The QCOM and GMST are recent additions; I found the arguments on this thread quite compelling. Those two investments required me to sell MSFT and CMGI (and a couple small holdings), which I had no intention to sell before GG. CSCO and EMC have given me 80% annualized returns and I still haven't been convinced to roll them into QCOM. JDSU has done extremely well and would be even more difficult to get rid of.
I know that none of the Nights would hold ANCR now (or for at least the next 12 months), but I have a hard time believing that the Q will outperform it in the next year. Gilder Report comments on Fibre Channel aside, market predictions show tornadic growth expected in the next few years. QCOM is certainly lower risk. I am losing my appetite for risk, but still have some tolerance for it. While never a Dellhead, I think I understand what that must have been like, what long-term Ancor investors currently feel.
I am wrestling with this issue now. It would be much easier if I were of a mind to confess to coveting a Shiny Pebble and ask for forgiveness. I'm just not convinced it is in my financial interest to do so. If anyone cares to offer their insight I'll try very hard to read with an open mind.
Let me end this epistle by thanking all of you for having such a wonderful thread. Not only was I motivated to read all 10,000 posts, I have an urge to participate publicly to try to repay in some way the enormous benefit I have received. Whether anything I post here will be of use is debatable, but it is clear that continued lurking will benefit only me.
Greg
greg@iamgoingtoleavecleverdomainnamestotekboy.com |
