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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company

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1:18 PM EST

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To: quidditch who wrote (3378)	11/18/1999 2:18:00 AM
From: Clarksterh	Read Replies (1) of 13582

Steven - The difference being, Mr. Softee's mere launch of the newest, latest and greatest version of Windows was sufficient to establish the demand. Actually the difference is that no one had a choice. They don't make Windows 3.1 anymore. This is not a minor quibble. HDR is neither proven technology under load nor is the user demand proven, and no one has to buy it. They can still buy CDMAOne. You like to compare this to the move from TDMA to CDMA and ask whether the move to HDR from CDMA appears as risky to the average service provider. You say no, it doesn't, and thus no subsidy should be necessary. But the real answer is that the apparent technology risk is less, while the apparent benefits risk is more. If CDMAOne delivered as promised it was pretty clear that there was a market for the service and the CDMA providers would have a cost advantage. From a service providers perspective, for HDR there may be no market. That is a big risk on top of the technology risk in being first to deploy. Clark

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