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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company

QCOM 166.77

-4.2%

3:59 PM EST

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To: JGoren who wrote (3369)	11/18/1999 2:52:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (4) of 13582

Well, it looks as though for CDMA WLL it will be 'game over' when OFDM hits the airwaves. So one of the original legs of Qualcomm has been removed [or will be sooner or later]. Certainly a mobile network will be able to provide WLL service too, but not as efficiently as the Cisco VOFDM < I do not see QCOM's CDMA HDR offering and CSCO's VOFDM as competing head to head. Here is why: QCOM's system will be operated out of a PCS block. Such blocks have from 15 to 25 MHz of bandwidth. Furthermore, the bandwidth efficiency (complexity of the modulation scheme) supported by mobile wireless is not that high (I have not looked at the details of the HDR system, but am assuming that it uses QPSK which carries 2 bits/Hz/sec). By comparison MMDS has 120MHz to work with. The fixed configuration allows also higher order modulation, and in the case of VOFDM a high degree of space selectivity through the use of antenna arrays. So it is easy to see that the total information carrying capacity of VOFDM operating in the MMDS band will be much larger than HDR. So, QCOM's system will be highly flexible because of its support of mobility, but people using a wireless access solution from their homes will be better served by VOFDM.> WLL hasn't been the roaring success it was hoped. India is far from full of it and so is China. There should be more than enough in mobile and some WLL from the CDMA networks to keep Mighty Q! in business if Wi-Lan and Cisco and OFDM amount to much in the fixed business. Meanwhile, the Freetel investment looks like a very good move. Microsoft/Qualcomm/Freetel rampaging around the world with HDR will give a bit of incentive for the chickens who worry that there is no WWeb market to start laying eggs. Qualcomm is wisely resolving the chicken and egg problem by putting a big HDR chicken in Korea. Putting our money where their mouth is. That suits me fine. I've seen too many conservative companies do nothing because of technology and market risk since opportunity cost is not too painful to them. Telecom and CDMA Globalstar Service Providers sitting on hands.. Mqurice PS: Ramsey Su going on leave sure gave the Q! market a shock.

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