BGR, regret the delay here, but...
I do believe that it is possible to identify undervalued equities. Note that I do not necessarily mean "undervalued" in the same sense as Graham and Dodd used it. Over the last year, I have held stocks such as LU, GEOC, CSCO, JDSU, BRCM, CNXT, GBLX, and INTC (also, DROOY, ASA, and CLF). In my opinion, each of them was undervalued at the time that I bought. I have had a few losers, but I have chosen to focus on a few industry groups, thereby minimizing negative surprises. I buy the leaders in an industry group, and follow the news regularly. When I sense that excess speculation is creeping into one of my holdings, I begin to sell.
Do I buy and hold index funds? Of course, but I use a portion (33%) of my assets for intermediate-term speculation as well. And I have outperformed the indices in that account every year since 1991. But, I try to disabuse myself of the idea that this is proof of superior investment skill... it only indicates that my style has worked throughout the 90s. The question is, am I flexible enough to change as the market does?
AA
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