For your consumption. Here's the latest, had a few hiccups, tis
a little more professional now, not this wee-hour of the morning
stuff. Ha. Hope it makes sense, fire back questions. Changed to
trailing twelve months, makes a little difference - but not much
considering you are tring to predict 4-7 years into the future.
Well, here is the updated table of predictions !
First, thanks Jason, have corrected the round off error.
I am now doing the calculations on a trailing twelve month
basis. The previous table was based on 4*current quarter.
Also, on the far right is the valuation as a momentum play.
Following table shows valuation of PRST in terms of PE of 18
for those followers that base valuation on earnings alone.
Valuation of PRST using a PSR of 2.5 for followers that base
valuation on Sales. And valuation of PRST as a momentum play
based on earnings growth.
Again, table was generated with the following assumptions:
1) No bottle neck producing plates
2) Company does not introduce new products
3) New technology steals market share in 4 1/2 years
4) No new press makes added to the customer list
Legend:
Qtr - future quarter from today
Unit Inst - number of units installed, both new and CONVERTED
Total exist - number of units in field consuming plates
Sales - revenues from equipment and plates
Earn - earnings from equipment and plates
EPS - earnings per share
PE=18 - valuation of stock at PE of 18 TTM basis
PSR=2.5 - valuation of stock at PSR of 2.5 TTM basis
Mom't - valuation of stock as a momenteum play
PE - PE value justified by earnings growth
Unit Total Current Quarter Trailing 12 Month Valuations
Qtr Inst Exist Sales Earn EPS Sales Earn EPS PE=18 PSR=2.5 Mom't PE
--- --- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- --
1 36 226 12.4 2.0 .12 40.4 6.6 .40 7.1 6.1 34.9 88
2 69 295 20.0 3.0 .18 52.7 8.6 .52 9.4 8.0 39.4 75
3 99 394 27.9 4.1 .25 71.2 11.0 .67 12.0 10.8 46.0 69
4 127 521 36.2 5.3 .32 96.4 14.3 .87 15.6 14.6 58.0 67
5 190 711 52.3 7.5 .46 136.3 19.8 1.20 21.7 20.6 68.9 57
6 248 959 69.0 10.0 .61 185.3 26.9 1.63 29.4 28.1 94.5 58
7 300 1259 86.2 12.7 .77 243.7 35.5 2.15 38.8 36.9 126.4 59
8 347 1606 103.7 15.6 .94 311.2 45.8 2.78 50.0 47.2 162.7 59
9 424 2030 128.6 19.4 1.18 387.6 57.7 3.50 63.0 58.7 196.6 56
10 492 2522 153.7 23.5 1.43 472.2 71.3 4.32 77.7 71.5 231.8 54
11 553 3075 179.2 27.9 1.69 565.3 86.4 5.24 94.3 85.6 268.0 51
12 606 3681 204.8 32.4 1.96 666.4 103.3 6.26 112.7 101.0 305.0 49
13 651 4332 230.2 37.1 2.25 768.0 120.9 7.33 131.9 116.4 338.4 46
14 689 5021 255.5 41.8 2.53 869.8 139.2 8.43 151.8 131.8 367.8 44
15 718 5739 279.9 46.6 2.82 970.4 157.9 9.57 172.2 147.0 391.6 41
16 740 6479 303.7 51.4 3.11 1069.3 176.8 10.72 192.9 162.0 409.3 38
17 754 7233 326.5 56.1 3.40 1165.5 195.8 11.87 213.6 176.6 423.7 36
18 760 7993 348.1 60.7 3.68 1258.1 214.7 13.01 234.3 190.6 434.6 33
19 759 8752 368.4 65.2 3.95 1346.6 233.3 14.14 254.6 204.0 442.1 31
20 750 9502 387.1 69.5 4.21 1430.0 251.5 15.24 274.3 216.7 446.0 29
21 733 10235 403.9 73.6 4.46 1507.4 268.9 16.30 293.4 228.4 446.4 27
22 708 10943 418.7 77.3 4.69 1578.0 285.6 17.31 311.5 239.1 443.1 26
23 675 11618 431.1 80.8 4.89 1640.7 301.1 18.25 328.5 248.6 435.8 24
24 635 12253 441.3 83.8 5.08 1695.0 315.5 19.12 344.1 256.8 424.7 22
25 587 12840 448.8 86.5 5.24 1739.9 328.4 19.90 358.2 263.6 409.6 21
26 531 13371 453.4 88.7 5.37 1774.7 339.7 20.59 370.6 268.9 390.4 19
27 468 13839 455.1 90.3 5.48 1798.6 349.3 21.17 381.1 272.5 367.3 17
28 396 14235 453.2 91.4 5.54 1810.6 356.9 21.63 389.4 274.3 340.0 16
29 317 14552 448.1 92.0 5.57 1809.8 362.4 21.96 395.4 274.2 308.4 14
30 231 14783 439.3 91.8 5.57 1795.7 365.6 22.16 398.8 272.1 272.6 12
31 136 14919 426.5 91.0 5.51 1767.1 366.2 22.19 399.5 267.7 232.1 10
32 36 14955 410.0 89.5 5.42 1723.9 364.2 22.07 397.3 261.2 187.7 9
Table expects 15000 presses equiped in 8 years, out of a field
of 150,000 presses this is somewhat low for the FIRST to market.
Personally, I believe they will attract about 18% of the market
or 27000 presses.
Addition of new customers could increase the above valuations
by as much as 60%.
New technology introduced prior to 3 years, say 1 to 1 1/2 years
will cut the above valuations in half.
Inflation actually increases the bottom values by as much as 38%. |
