Carl, the problem with the AMD type scenario is that the stock may not get to within shouting distance for forced conversion. May 2001 may find us in the midst of a bear market, and the current semi upcycle might age quite drastically. Furthermore, to fight INTC and raise money, AMD has divested a lot of its non CPU assets, which I believe might have been a tactical error, these businesses supported AMD's effort to become a power in the CPU business, but left them with, IMHO, too few resources to keep up with INTC. The current tightness in the CPU market will be replaced with glut, by mid 2001, and I fear that AMD will by then be no higher than it is today (after , IMHO a sprint to about $40 or so). The scenario may work for MU (right here is a good time to get back into MU IMHO), due to better timing relative to the "cycle" and a much stronger support from the street.
Zeev |
