Actually, you might want to revisit your argument. If TBFC is to get 1.05 shares of EGRP for each of their own, then TBFC should be selling at a premium to EGRP -- about a couple of bucks. In fact it is $2 below EGRP which suggests one of two things:
1. There is a reasonable belief on the Street that the deal won't go through.
2. The arbies are asleep.
This second argument is not too preposterous. There are very few shares of TBFC around, and it would take a lot of work for not much return to, say, sell a big chunk of EGRP and buy a corresponding chunk of TBFC.
A third possibility is that there is, I believe, no futures trading in TBFC, but there is in EGRP, so, somehow, the current price of TBFC partially reflects some short-term pessimism wrt EGRP.
Thoughts?
Fido |
