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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: J.T. who wrote (1366)11/18/1999 4:39:00 PM
From: Matthew L. Jones  Read Replies (1) of 19219
 
I know that fundamentally you guys are totally right regarding current valuations, t/a, statistical analysis, etc. Having said that, I hope you guys are not short or sitting on the side lines for what is probably the biggest parabolic move since last October.

I have a theory I would like to blow past you guys since your are the gurus...

1) Values right now are insane (everyone knows it).
2) Put volume is low as is VIX.X
3) Amateurs don't typically hedge their positions with puts.
4) That would indicate (along with the unbelievable volume) that the buying is largely professionals.
5) The whole world is looking for a January melt up.
6) The pros are all hyping a January melt up.
7) Thesis: I believe that the pros will continue to run this thing up with minor pullbacks until January 1 (when all of the dumb money comes in) and then sell like we've never seen before. Taking all of the money from the amateurs (J6P) in a big "crash like" scare (which will really be more of a market correction designed to take the money from the sheep.
8) I would watch Put volume as a leading indicator. When it jumps all of a sudden, it's time to get flat and ready to short.

What do you gurus think of that possibility? I really value your input. Thanks.

Matt
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