Some VIX observations - now I'm not so sure that this is such a low VIX.
If you look at a longer-term chart of the VIX, you will see that it was in a much lower range in the past. For example, in 1994 it was in a range of roughly 10-20.
OK, that was then, this is now, it's a different market, fair enough.
But it seems to me that the VIX had been trending upward until the peak in October, 1998, and it seems to be trending downward since then. So, perhaps we need to revise what we consider a "low" VIX. I guess that most people would consider 20 the danger signal right now.
But the July VIX low got down to about 19, and I see a couple of cases where the VIX got quite low and the market actually went UP. (December, 1998, August, 1999).
The RSI is above the signal line, but look at Nov, 98 and July 99 - it can stay up there for weeks!
I'm now think of closing my QQQ short, and just sitting-out the next few weeks. The market is too crazy for me to trade. Guess I will just "buy the dip" with the rest of the sheep LOL and hope it's a dip!
I'll wait to see how tomorrow's expiration is looking before making a decision, but I'm now thinking that we could go up quite a way from here. I'm uncertain enough, though, that the rocket will leave without me, and I will sit on my 400% profit for the year... |
