Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? Message Board

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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end?

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Jun 26 5:00 PM EST

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To: Crueldog who wrote (2159)	11/19/1999 12:34:00 AM
From: Mad2	Read Replies (1) of 3543

Maybe a better way to put it is someday stocks will stop trading on promises and start trading on profits.I think you say this out of frustration as it relates to some of the more wildly valued internut/telecom/e-commerce issues. However in a broader sense I'd say that the market does and always will trade on promises.....the promise of the future and what it will bring. With the exception of the setback (read buying opportunity) of Aug-Oct of 1998 the performance of the economy/market in the past 4 1/2 years has probably exceeded the expectation of most mortals (even Mr. Greenspan has quit has capitulated on that). Common sense would dictate that the next few years will not bring the same level of economic growth as we have seen in the past and as such the promise of the future isn't as bright as we have recently experienced (hard to tell by the market averages). Damn, that means to make it on the long side I'll have to work smarter or perhaps settle for poorer returns. I'm not sure I look forward to the day when we all act like we are from Misouri and insist that the the companies we buy stock in have a demonstrable record of revenue growth and profit that we can plug into a model to generate a net present value of cash flows(sounds too much like 1981 which was too depressing) and make our investiment decision by comparing our calculated value to bonds and bills (after puting in a risk premium......don't hear much about that these days) Best Regards, Mad2

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