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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla Game Investing in the eWorld
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To: Teflon who wrote (750)11/19/1999 1:23:00 AM
From: tekboy  Read Replies (1) of 1817
 
Ok, here's my seat-of-the-pants take now that I've completed some minimal DD.

i2 is a well-run company with a good track record, good partners, real earnings, and an excellent position moving forward in the B2B ecommerce tornado. And compared to some other companies in this sector, it does indeed seem (even at this point) to be almost a "bargain" way to play this game.

But--it is not clear how different the services it provides are from those of potential competitors; it is not clear how high the switching costs are for companies using its services; there do not seem to be very large barriers to entry; and the size of the potential market will obviously attract lots of competitors. Execution will be crucial to future performance, and current valuations are so high (in absolute terms, at least) that anything less than great execution will probably be punished.

Since this entire sector is currently running on fumes and dreams of glory, i2 seems no worse an investment--and perhaps a significantly better one--than many other potential godzillas. Just to force me to keep paying attention to the sector I will continue to hold it. But I will do so lightly, and I will keep the investment quite small, as it seems far more speculative than my other mainstream G&K holdings.

As always--but particularly so here--I defer on all of this to savvier thread elders.

living dangerously,

tekboy/Ares@letterfrombirminghamthreadjail.com
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