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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla Game Investing in the eWorld

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To: pala who wrote (741)11/19/1999 3:14:00 AM
From: Bruce Brown  Read Replies (2) of 1817
 
Doug,

I wasn't trying to 'force' anything in terms of status. Ariba isn't mine and I thought we were collectively trying to take a look at the individual stocks and see if we can ascertain if a Gorilla Game or a Godzilla Game or a combination of some shape and scope is taking place. It's hard to grasp the models for all of us because it seems to be a ongoing business model development that at times appears to have gorilla game aspects and at other times appears to have Godzilla Game aspects. I guess that's why the authors called it a Gorilla-King game. However, just because it involves transactions via the Internet doesn't mean it is automatically a negative connotation and words like Tulip and Internutz spew out. As the authors in the revised manual state - a lot of the game will be played in this space going forward as these new business models emerge to take advantage of the Internet. There will be many, many more to come in the future and some of these business models are going to work just as some are going to fail. I am young enough and aggressive enough with a portion of my investments to participate in these opportunities. I make the distinction that it is not for every investor.

A few months ago, I started to take a look at all of them. I don't feel like scrolling back that far to see a lengthy post I made about Ariba, but it contained quite a bit of gathered information. I've been an investor in i2 for quite some time. When i2 made the well telegraphed decision to expand their business opportunities to take advantage of the Internet model, I wanted to take a closer look at Ariba and Commerce One as well as a few others to get a grasp on what type of game is developing for each and how best to position myself for those games if I see any of them as being worthy investments. I took a position in Ariba several months ago which is not substantial, but what I saw in the financials and the growth for Ariba I was prompted to step in to the investment. If I force any "Internutz" stock into my personal portfolio, it is usually for very good reason from my standpoint. I am a long time holder of AOL, Yahoo! and recently added eBay (although a small stake). Those are clearly Godzilla Game stocks (Internutz as you call them). Although I detest that word because most who use it have derived a negative connotation, I am trying to view the 'big picture' of the Godzilla Game and how it is played. I do not advocate investing in any of these stocks without knowing the rewards, risks, volatility and competitive environments for each investment. In other words, "Tiptoe, through the Tulips...." .

My long ago post about about ARBA included things like Ariba's clients including 14 percent of the Fortune 100 companies. Companies like Dell, HP, Honda, MCI Worldcom, Phillips, SAirGroup, Charles Schwab, Motorola, National Semiconductor, Morgan Stanley, Andersen Consulting, etc... . Major alliances with Microsoft, Siebel and Chemdex, JD Edwards, etc... . Top pick of the year by Money Magazine. Annual revenue of 136 billion in ORMS from established customers.

Here are some more goodies which can all be easily viewed right here at Silicon Investor on the ARBA thread:

NEW YORK, Sept 24 (Reuters) - CS First Boston said on Friday it started
coverage of e-commerce company Ariba Inc. with a buy rating.

-- ``Having already acquired customers representing a stunning $136 billion in
annual operating resource management spending, Ariba is in a position to establish one of the most profitable
business-to-business commerce networks.'

-- ``We expect dramatic announcements at the user conference next week introducing major new customers,
distribution partners, and service providers, highlighting the Ariba Network's ascent in the tornado.'

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Ariba Inc.'s (ARBA) business is unique in bringing buyers and
sellers together over the Internet, according to Chairman and Chief Executive Keith
Krach.

In a CNBC interview Tuesday, Krach said the difference is the company's focus on
operating resources like industrial supplies, office supplies, and travel and
entertainment, rather than what he called "direct materials." He did not elaborate.

Until now, companies generally didn't have these types of operating resources and
services automated, Krach said.

Earlier Tuesday, Ariba expanded its electronic-commerce system by including more
buyers and suppliers on its business-to-business network and broadening its product
offerings. Those selling services include U.S. Bancorp (USB), Compaq Computer Corp.
(CPQ) and ImageX.com Inc. (IMGX).

Ms. Meeker explained that, from buyer-centric applications to online
vertical marketplaces and sell-side systems, Ariba is the glue that pulls
together the various models for business-to-business eCommerce on the
Internet. Meeker further observed that since the popularization of the
Internet in 1995, each year has seen a poster child emerge for the successful
use of the Internet to re-engineer business models -- Yahoo! in 1996, Amazon
in 1997, eBay in 1998 and Healtheon and Ariba in 1999. She continued that
these companies, with their first mover advantage, great execution, and loyal
customers, have created huge barriers to entry to which broad-based and
recurring benefits will accrue.

Ariba also made sweeping announcements of new strategies, products,
partnerships and clients. Ariba announced:

-- The new Ariba Internet Business Exchange (Ariba IBX(TM)) service, a
hosted Internet service that enables Ariba partners to quickly build their own
commerce communities powered by the Ariba Network platform without installing
or maintaining their own eCommerce infrastructures;

-- Ariba ORMS(TM) Release 6, the newest version of the company's flagship
buyer enablement intranet application that provides Global 2,000 companies
with access to Ariba Network services and the industry's most robust
infrastructure for managing the acquisition of operating resources;

-- Seven new large buying organization customers, including Andersen
Consulting, Charles Schwab & Co., CNA Insurance, Deloitte Consulting, Morgan
Stanley Dean Witter, Motorola and National Semiconductor;

-- The new Ariba ORMX(TM) application, a version of Ariba ORMS(TM) Release
6 tailored for use in an application service provider (ASP) environment and
ideally suited for mid-size companies;

-- The addition of integrated electronic payment services through an
agreement with U.S. Bank;

-- A partnership with PurchasePro.com, providing its buyers and suppliers
with access to the Ariba Network platform;

-- An extension of Ariba's partnership with J.D. Edwards under which
J.D. Edwards will integrate and resell the Ariba ORMS(TM) application and
access to the Ariba Network platform to its 5,000 WorldSoftware(TM) customers
as well as its OneWorld(TM) customers;

-- Continued momentum in adding new suppliers to the Ariba Network
platform, including the addition of Compaq, and more than 20 other supplier
announcements

"Today's product and strategy announcements clearly demonstrate that the
Ariba eCommerce ecosystem of blue-chip clients, industry-leading suppliers,
global partners and value-added service providers is creating new value
throughout the entire Internet economy," said Keith Krach, president and CEO
at Ariba.

siliconinvestor.com

Philips Electronics selected Ariba (Nasdaq: ARBA) in March of this year and expects to save almost
$200 million annually by using the Ariba system, Moore states, "HP eventually wants to spend $7
billion per year on the Ariba system and connect with 20,000 suppliers over the Ariba network. Over
time, Ariba may build a very attractive transaction-based revenue model. Therefore, we think that
Ariba's revenue may potentially accelerate sharply in the next 18 to 24 months."

siliconinvestor.com

siliconinvestor.com

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