That's a good web site, but I see he's taking his show on the road soon -- turning it into a paying-customer-only site.
I studied the recent A-D lines for the NYSE, Nasdaq, Kospi and Nikkei and have been unable to turn it into a timing indicator. To me it seems that indices are dominated by the darlings of technology and commerce, and everything else is junk. So if one of the big caps goes up, and ten pieces of junk go down, it skews the A-D line down -- when in fact the index is going up. Maybe I'm jumping the gun, but to me I see a permanent change in the market -- A-D lines will always head downward, but indices will continue upwards.
I think that companies are at reasonable levels now -- and I don't see a general undervaluing of small and mid-caps compared to large caps. The P/E ratios of the S&P 500 (large-cap), S&P 400 (mid-cap), and S&P 600 (small-cap) are 33, 29, and 32, respectively. They maybe historically high, but strong growth is ahead and the P/E's will become lower quickly. |