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Strategies & Market Trends : Arbitrage Plays

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (111)11/19/1999 6:17:00 PM
From: Allen Furlan  Read Replies (2) of 376
 
Paul, havn't checked out nvx yet, but press release indicated a condition of getting approval of one of their vaccines. Does this appear to be a problem? Today I bought a March call spread on krog, 15 over 17.5 for 1 3/8. My probability calculation on this one .8*+1.125 -.2* 1.375=.625. I think 80% probability that deal will go through in next 4 or 5 months for the 18 dollar cash offer. This calculation puts annualized return over 100%. Bought a few more shares of ctz this week. FNF gets a good rating in the morningstar reports and looks good to me also. Of course DOJ could do us in on the basis of competition being diminished. Don't think so though.
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