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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: Jeffrey D who wrote (9987)11/20/1999 11:28:00 AM
From: Allan Harris  Read Replies (3) of 15132
 
More on Short-Term Timing from the Long Waves forum:

On Friday, the Open 10 TRIN (an indicator I named many years ago, but did not invent) closed at its most overbought level in almost a decade. The Open 30 TRIN (Arms Index) closed at its most overbought level in five years. The price momentum on the Nasdaq argues against any top of significance being seen here, but the next few weeks should prove very interesting.

By the way, in research I did several years ago, I discovered that one of the most favorable periods of seasonality all year long occurs between Thanksgiving and Christmas. It is virtually unheard of to see a significant decline (greater than 5-6%) between those 2 dates. That implies either that bearishness is premature here, or alternatively, that your December bottom leads to a significant rally that erases some or much of the decline that might occur here.

Peter Eliades
Stockmarket Cycles

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