<<And, BWT, my long time favorite ATHM just broke off 50
mark first time Aug. >>
I'm looking at ATHM this weekend. The problem is the risk.
It appears it could go either way. Do you see this as a Casino stock?
<<Business Week: November 29, 1999
Information Technology: The Info Tech 100
Excite@Home: Rebound@Hand?
Excite@Home used to have an Internet glow. Set up by several big cable companies, Excite@Home boasts the exclusive right to sell speedy access to the Net over the cable-TV networks running into 55 million U.S. homes. And the service is tempting: It costs a modest $40 a month for consumers to tap the Web at speeds up to 50 times faster than modems provide. Analysts figured Excite@Home would win 10 million customers in the next few years, propelling its stock to $99 a share this spring.
Then the glow faded. Internet stocks tumbled earlier this year. And while other highfliers recovered, Excite@Home kept getting bad news. For starters, several cities, including Portland, Ore., decided to force Excite@Home and its cable partners to open their networks to competitors so they could sell Net access. And AT&T, the company's largest shareholder, started giving the company grief. It criticized Excite's forays into the content business, asked the company to improve the quality of its service, and decided it will let other companies market Net access over its networks. AT&T's meddling even prompted a lawsuit by an Excite shareholder.
In short, Excite@Home's free pass to Net stardom got canceled. That prompted investors to bail out. For the six months that ended on Nov. 12, Excite@Home shares plunged 44%. That makes it one of the worst performers among the Info Tech 100 selected by BUSINESS WEEK in June.
Is the company toast? Not at all. Even though Excite@Home will lose its exclusive rights to market Net access over cable networks, it has a head start. And it's making the most of it. The company added 220,000 subscribers in the third quarter, giving it a total of 840,000 customers. Its revenues are on track to more than double this year, to $419.9 million, according to Hambrecht & Quist. ``The actual execution of the company has been stellar,' says Chief Executive Thomas A. Jermoluk.
Excite@Home can afford nothing less. Its exclusive rights to market Net access begin to expire in 2002, and almost all will end by 2006. Its success will depend on how many customers it can win before then. To attract subscribers, Excite@Home is adding innovative services, including the ability to chat verbally at its site instead of just with text. In October, the company acquired bluemountainarts.com, a popular provider of free electronic greeting cards that will help drive traffic to Excite.
Jermoluk hopes that will lead to explosive growth. Analyst Michael Graham of BancBoston Robertson Stephens Inc. figures the company could nab 10 million subscribers by 2003. If it gets the same kind of value America Online Inc. gets per subscriber, that would make Excite@Home's stock worth about $200, nearly five times its current value. ``I like the stock a lot,' says Graham, echoing the sentiment of other analysts. But then, Wall Street may not be the best place to find an objective opinion. None of the major analysts following Excite@Home downgraded the stock before, during, or after its crash this year.
To figure out how Excite@Home will do, keep an eye on subscriber growth. If the company can boost its number of customers to 2 million by the end of next year, it may be able to fly high again.>> |
