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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 652.53

-1.5%

Nov 20 4:00 PM EST

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To: bobby beara who wrote (33861)	11/20/1999 1:37:00 PM
From: dennis michael patterson	Read Replies (1) of 99985

bb, how about this comparison (you wrote it two days from the bottom)? To: heinz blasnik who wrote (29483) From: bobby beara Wednesday, Oct 13 1999 11:56PM ET Reply # of 33862 timely.com. Heinz, i believe we got more overbought (daq to new highs!) on this rally than most think and a large number of traders bought in to the 28th being the bottom (as noted by the volume) and now are caught in a bull trap. The vix piercing it's lower 20 day band for the first time this year implies a springing action, as it has for downside reversals this year. The Dow has an interesting pattern developing. the angled 3 stooges top base was retested and turned into resistance and the little hump we made here correspondes to the little hump at March 19th, so we have another angled pattern here with a projection to the 9100 area, you can see this on the other indexes as we are making a symetrical rounding top. The a/d line is making a clear elliot wave pattern and the little flat shelf that we made here on this rally was wave 4 of larger wave 5 down from the april top. The McCllelan Oscillator complex bottom failed, it's quite possible that whole pattern will now be a left shoulder and we are now in the process of making the head on this final wave 5 of 5 down in the a/d line. Sentiment improved in II survey 39% bulls, 36% bears, but still have to get more bears than bulls and we will by the time this whole thing plays out i believe, which will include a 90% down day and major capitulation selling. Get ready for some wild action over the next week or two and make sure you have your propeller beanie fastened tightly -g-

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