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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 176.18

+2.0%

10:15 AM EST

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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (51201)	11/20/1999 2:38:00 PM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (2) of 152472

To: Gregory Mullineaux (17192 ) From: ahhaha Saturday, Nov 20 1999 1:10PM ET Reply # of 17193 I haven't changed my mind about QCOM even though they have put on a stellar performance. My criticism stands. Wireless is a fraud. QCOM moved in and skillfully took advantage of a portion of the wireless market. I congratulate your sources for picking that one. The bear market hasn't ended in stocks. We're only in the first upside reaction to the major down trend. Most take this to be a bull market move. It's only a topping process for the majority. Why is this happening? Industrial America is dying. Most of the wealth sits nominally in these old rust buckets. So this bear market is a transitional market very much like those of the turn of the century. The mad dash scramble into the new industries has created the appearance of a structural bull market. This is why the advance decline line is diverging downward. Meanwhile the line tells a profound truth. Most have to get out of rust into shiny. They aren't doing it because appearances are deceiving. They believe a bull market is occurring and so they stay put, but it is only occurring among a few of the beneficiaries of shiny. What will reveal the truth is the irrevocable move to ever higher interest rates and the ensuing nasty correction in great expectations. Labor America works in rust and so the reality of uncompensatable wage demands is inexorable. The result due to the accommodation of the FED is rising rates. The FED sets a higher rate and then provides funds at the margin during the interim which defeats the very purpose of the new posting. Thus, they embed structural inflation. The economy and markets adjust to the new level and things are perceived to be just ducky. No one remembers. Six months ago 2 rate hikes were considered enough but now we're working on the fourth. Unfortunately at 6% fed funds the implied level of efficiency needed to maintain profitability isn't there for rust and rust must start raising prices regardless of alternative supply because they can't recapture costs. In this interim everyone becomes adapted to ever higher inflation so it is acceptable. As long as the wealth machine continues higher prices are tolerated. Then there is a sudden break when some one individual can't afford it. That's when wireless will hit the skids. It will be the first big technology bust. The reason it will go is that em radiation of the radio frequency easily couples to matter. This makes wireless a niche player. Everyone in wireless must get into the niches so the result is paper thin margin creating competition. Mass deployment promises sucks in the public. Then the public tries to exit when the players dump. I see you got onto vector orthogonal. Can you even define it? Just another dipole field coupling to matter. Has all the efficiency of CDMA. It astounds me that CDMA still exists. If you want to impress someone with letter soup name dropping, you might try to find a company developing Time Domain technology. It's the only wireless that has a chance. What's QCOM doing in that "space"? While wireless is discovering the truth wave guide technologies will waltz merrily by. They're recession proof. They benefit in recession. And ATHM is top dog in that heap. >> Jim, This my favorite bunker dweller on the ATHM thread. The man has buckets of knowledge, but for some unknown reason, (Maybe he knows to much for his on good) he has been a goldbug for years. I love to see you two go at it. Greg --> I was owner of ATHM last year about this time rode it up sold it on the way down and have bought it back Friday.

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