Compaq Message Board - Msg: 12024067

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Technology Stocks : Compaq

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To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (72474)	11/20/1999 9:54:00 PM
From: Captain Jack	Read Replies (3) of 97611

El-- you are MUCH more optomistic than I. An upgrade or 2 are possibly required to get through 28. The CFO announcement would help also. Could the hold up be they cannot find any one good enough that will work for them after EMs debacle? That should be an easy position to fill knowing a very qualified person looks to be a millionaire in very short order. The analysts can say MC is turning it around but the world would know it is much too soon to be certain just as all know DEC has not been fully integrated yet! Anyone with anything to do with the Y2K problem is well aware it will be a non-event and have known that for months but no one will make those already in a panic believe (how many nut cases that you know bought generators?). Some will be waiting on Q1 to buy equipment, others will be buying closer to the end of Dec. Many have tremendously overbudgeted for Y2K and have a ton of $$$ to put in the bottom line or hopefully IT/IS purchasing. None will say cpq has a lock on the retail pc mkt as that would not be true. The Ipaq margin should be as good or better than CHEAP PCs. I do not see it replacing CHEAP PCs but those high end corporate ones. The best part of Ipaq IMO is not selling cheap boxes instead of expensive ones but taking hold of the very high margin service to businesses. AV -- no matter how you try to justify its sale was a stupid move. It was nearly ready to IPO and should have been much farther along.The wireless pact was great news but they need to move real fast. Keeping CE instead of (or in addition to) PALM is another mistake. That indicates a tech company that is not with the best technology with the most apps... CMGI and some of thre others will continue to add value until the Inuts fall. When that happens the result will more than offset todays gains. People that want to own CMGI buy it, they do not go through a maze to get a part less the size of a used staple in the CFOs drawer. I am not waffling,,, I know at some point in time cpq will see its old high just as I know it will sink again. HISTORY of cpq assures that both will happen no matter what the mkts do... still bailing 1/2 in '99 and 1/2 in '00. The wall is there and as I said it will take a huge amount of volume hopefully news driven to get through. Since you are close to even you put on the rose colored glasses ???????????????????????????? ................

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