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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Uncle Frank who wrote (10814)11/21/1999 9:30:00 AM
From: JohnG  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
FranQ. Gorilla death notice. I have been meaning to advise all that CISCO may will be dead in 5 years. Only one way they can escape.
JohnG
To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (51270)
From: JohnG
Sunday, Nov 21 1999 9:12AM ET
Reply # of 51279

JimWillie. On Lucent. What you missed was the all optical switch they announced a
couple of weeks ago. If the switch works economically then combine it with 1)the doped
eribium amp (all optical amp, 2) multi lambda optical multiplexing, 3) Lucent's low water
optical fiber (no water attinuation spikes),4)JDSU's full component service and module
optical components, 5)Nortel's router software (licensed to Microsoft for inclusion in
future operating systems
AND guess what, CISCO mayt well be history--TOAST.
JohnG

Also, the demand for broad band just doesn't work with CISCO equipment. Previously, optical had to be converted to electronic to go thru the router. If Lucent's optical switch works, this won't be the case. Also, the mass of transmissions can jyst be broadcast over fiber rather than being routed in the future.

Neadless to say, as GG says, AT&T's copper network is rapidly becoming a historic relic.

This is why CSCO is trying to get into a new business--CDMA last mile service. It's to SURVIVE. And they may bypass QCOM patents. But they sure as hell can't bypass QCOM's experience. In my opinion CSCO is a rabbit running straight down the road in front of an approaching 18 wheeler.

Have advised B-in-law to dump CSCO--to much risk of failure at this point. QCOM can put any one into the last mile business---so why should it be CSCO--what will be the QUID PRO QUO. Also advised father to buy JDSU.

QCOM rules!!! And JDSU isn't too shabby either.
JohnG
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