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To: Father Terrence who wrote (2640)	4/16/1997 2:37:00 PM
From: Ignacio Mosqueira	of 4006

That is very good Terrence. It is true that I did redefine the question to one that seems more meaningful to me. By no means do I expect that intelligent life is a common occurrence in this galaxy. If it was we would see the consequences everywhere we looked and we do not. Why? Well because once a civilization hits the technological age change proceeds exponentially and it is not long before the entire galaxy becomes accesible. That is if civilization is, in general, a stable system. No matter how one looks at it then it seems unlikely that civilizations are such a common event that we would expect several to coexist at any one time in one galaxy. I do not expect that we will make contact. BTW Terrence I am sure that you are aware of the probability formula of Drake. It is very misleading to use it. One should also write a probability formula of likely error and then the conclusion simply becomes that the formula does not tell you much.

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